Two things happened this week that matter if you're buying, or helping someone buy, in coastal Orange County before the holidays. Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate fell for a third straight week, to 7.18% on November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before. The 15-year averaged 6.57%, down from 6.60%. And here in Orange County, 443 homes were pulled off the market in a single week, according to the November 2 Orange County Real Estate Market Report. That's roughly double the pace of about 200 a week it had been tracking.
What moved rates this week
Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more than they follow the Fed. The 10-year fell to about 4.84% midday on November 5, its lowest level since early September and well below the 5.30%-plus it reached in early October, as lower oil prices eased some inflation worries (Andreu Realty, Nov. 5). The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, and its next decision is December 9. The next CPI inflation report is due November 10.
For perspective, the 30-year average is still about a point higher than a year ago, when it was 6.22% (Freddie Mac, Nov. 5). I don't know where rates go from here, and neither does anyone else. So your plan shouldn't depend on guessing.
What the Orange County numbers say
From the November 2 report: active inventory eased to 4,945 homes (from 5,054), and homes pending or under contract slipped to 1,494 (from 1,522). The countywide median days on market rose to 49. It varies a lot by price:
Under $1 million: median 51 days
$1 million to $2 million: median 42 days, the fastest-moving band
$2 million and up: median 61 days
Homes under $2.5 million sold an average of 1.9% below list price, and homes above $2.5 million sold 3.6% below list. In late September, the same report found 43% of active listings had taken a price cut.
Nationally, NAR's most recent existing-home sales report (September data, released October 13) showed sales up 1.5% to a 3.99 million annual pace, with 4.8 months of supply and a median of 33 days on market. NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun put it simply: "Higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power."
What this means if you're buying now
When sellers pull listings in November, many are choosing to wait for spring instead of cutting their price again. That means fewer choices, but the sellers still listed often have a real reason to sell, and fewer buyers compete over the holidays. What I'd focus on:
Be ready to move quickly. A fully documented pre-approval (income, assets and credit already reviewed) lets you write a clean offer the same week you find the right home.
Ask for the right concession. On a home that has sat, a seller credit toward closing costs or a rate buydown can sometimes help your monthly budget more than a small price cut. We can compare both for your situation.
Plan the calendar. An offer written in mid-November often closes around the holidays, when appraisers, escrow and title offices run on lighter schedules. Build in a few extra days and choose a rate-lock period that covers them. The November 10 inflation report and the December 9 Fed meeting both land inside many of those escrows.
For agents
Those 443 delistings are worth a look. Some will relist in January, but some would take a solid offer now from a ready buyer. If you're working with a fully documented buyer, that conversation is worth having before spring.
Match your strategy to the price band: $1 million to $2 million is moving fastest, while above $2 million the list-to-sale gap is wider. And if a listing has been sitting, send it to me before you write the offer. I'll run a seller credit vs. price reduction comparison so your buyer can see which one does more for them.
Let's build your plan
Buying in the next few months? Start with a quick purchase plan and I'll map out your options, timeline and what to ask for. Or call or text (949) 910-3943. I'm licensed in California, Arizona, Washington and Oregon.
Mack Davidson, NMLS #1006831, E Mortgage Capital. Rates cited are market averages as of November 5, 2026, not an offer or commitment to lend. Your rate and terms depend on credit, property and loan program. Equal Housing Lender.
Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS, Nov. 5, 2026; Orange County Real Estate Market Report, Nov. 2, 2026; NAR Existing-Home Sales, Oct. 13, 2026; Andreu Realty, Nov. 5, 2026.
